Real Estate Forum

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You Want Fries With That Recovery?

MUCH TO-DO WAS MADE OF THE APRIL US

employment numbers, which incidentally came
out hours before started writing this column. After
all, the 165,000 new jobs that were created sur-
passed expectations by 20,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 7.5%.

Though the month-to-month decline was only 10 basis points, the final figure marked the lowest level of unemployment in four years. The Labor Department also revised its figures for job gains upward for February and March, from a collective 356,000 to 470,000 jobs for both months.

The news was rather unexpected for market watchers, who were anticipating below-forecast results. The news helped to push the Dow Jones industrial average above 15,000 for the first time and S&P futures rose by

10 points.

On the surface, this is certainly great news. But the fact that there was such elation over such little progress is disheartening. Especially after taking a closer look at the employment results.

The sector with the greatest jump was professional and business services, at 73,000 new positions. Great, right? Perhaps not, since this sector includes pretty much anyone who works in an office building—not just those that occupy desks.

The other three sectors that saw job gains were leisure/hospitality, retail trade and healthcare, with an aggregate 91,000 jobs. That means almost two-thirds of the new positions that were added last month are in traditionally low-paying, temporary sectors. In other words, it’s a McJobs recovery. What’s more, there was an increase of more than a quarter-million part-time jobs, also low paying and temporary.

What’s more, construction and government lost a total of 17,000 positions. (I don’t know whether to thank Congress or the Administration—or both—for the sequestration.) In all, there are still 11. 7 million people on the unemployment roster, many of whom have been there long term.

Since many of you reading this are probably doing so at ICSC’s RECon in Las Vegas, you’re probably tracking the jobs numbers carefully. After all, consumer confidence is based largely on job security and earnings, not to mention what’s happening on Capitol Hill and the broader domestic and global economy. And we’re only four months into the year; in fact, several market watchers expect the “recovery” to slow down as the year progresses.

What’s ultimately going to happen? Your guess is as good as mine. I think most of us, at this point, are hoping for the best, yet preparing for the worst.

Sule Aygoren Editor-in-Chief saygoren@alm.com

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