How Long toRecovery?
I HAVE GOOD NE WS AND BAD NE WS ABOU T
2021. The good news is that numerous vaccinesare hitting the market this year, and an economicrecovery of some type is all but assured, certainly by the second half. The bad news is that thereare challenges that lie in wait, starting with afumbled rollout of these vaccines and numerousstates that did not receive the necessary support and prep work to help deliverthe last mile of shots in the arm. The good news is that even though it was longin waiting and less than some may have wanted, December’s stimulus measureis going to boost the economy. The bad news is that for certain sectors, such asmultifamily, the $25 billion allotted to it is widely deemed to be not nearly enough.Also, all this stimulus could well introduce inflationary pressures in the economy,upending investment decisions.
Starting to get the picture? Progress in 2021 will be a start-and-stop affair, takingthe proverbial one step forward and then two steps back. On one hand, it won’tbe easy recovering from the wallop the pandemic delivered, but on the other thosesteps forward are important ones.
The same story will unfold within the commercial real estate industry as the various asset classes push to recovery. Some, such as multifamily and industrial, areway ahead already, with fundamentals that withstood the assault and, in the case ofindustry, strong demand that is driving investment and revenues. Others are furtherbehind, working hard to overcome the pounding the pandemic delivered to theirbusiness. In our cover story we examine various asset classes and the progressthey are making as the year gets underway.
There will be some bright spots amid this slog. CRE underwriting remains conservative but is also showing further signs of adapting to the pandemic. We take alook at this subject in our article on page 16. We also take a look at the role healthand safety is playing as owners work to bring back office tenants and ease apartment renters concerns about contagion on page 30.
Certainly, it may be a grueling year for some landlords. The good news: it can’tbe worse than 2020.
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4 GLOBEST. REAL ESTATE FORUM JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021
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